商机分层与收入预测情景

原名：commercial-forecaster

区分承诺、乐观和待推进商机，展示预测依据与不确定性。

中文 Skills 技能说明

季度目标怎么报，不能只给一个没有来由的数字。输入商机阶段、合同金额、历史转化与客户群留存数据，技能区分承诺、乐观和待推进情景，整理订约预测、客户群收入变化及各阶段可信度。包内 Python 工具生成测算与假设，不自动同步财务系统。缺少历史样本时应降低结论强度，不能将商机视为已收款，也不能把估算概率当成交保证。实际披露、预算和经营决策须由老板及财务复核。

上游能力依据

上游原始适用说明：Use when building a quarterly bookings forecast, ARR projection, pipeline forecast, NRR projection, or commit/best-case/pipe-only board number — especially when the CRO needs to walk the board through funnel math + cohort ARR + per-stage conversion assumptions without the theatre of a single undefended number. Decomposes pipeline into commit, best-case, and pipe-only tiers; projects cohort-level NRR/GRR to surface leaky cohorts before they show up in the consolidated number; scores per-stage funnel confidence so soft-floor stages get treated differently from high-confidence ones. Every output explicitly names the conversion rate used, the data window, and the weighting choice. For Head of Commercial, RevOps, VP Sales, and CRO at quarterly forecast or board prep. NOT financial close (see finance/financial-analysis). NOT strategic CRO hiring/territory (see c-level-advisor/cro-advisor). NOT pricing (see sibling pricing-strategist).

上游 SKILL.md 主要章节（保留原文标题）：

Purpose
When to use
Workflow
Step 1 — Intake pipeline + cohort + historical conversion data
Step 2 — Run 3-tier bookings forecast
Step 3 — Project cohort-level ARR
Step 4 — Score per-stage funnel confidence
Step 5 — Assemble the forecast deck
Scripts
References

使用边界

先提供真实业务背景、目标受众和可核验资料。输出是工作草稿或决策辅助，不补造客户反馈、经营数据、案例或引用。

作者、翻译与许可证

原作者: Alireza Rezvani 与 claude-skills contributors
中文翻译: CEOFans翻译
许可证: MIT
上游来源: https://github.com/alirezarezvani/claude-skills/tree/19392f7a08264ed00486a251f5b2098321771f94/commercial/skills/commercial-forecaster

适用范围

平台：linux、macos、windows；标签：产品与运营、商机分层与收入预测情景、开源技能

安全提示

基础静态扫描不等于绝对安全。技能可能调用命令、浏览器、云服务或本地文件，请在最小权限环境中使用，高风险操作必须人工确认。

如发现侵权、许可证或安全问题，可在本页前台提交投诉，管理员复核后可立即下架。